The CMS Announcement: Key 2027 Premium Figures
On September 28, 2026, CMS published its projected 2027 premium figures for the Medicare Advantage and Part D markets — the annual pre-AEP data release that gives brokers and beneficiaries a clear picture of what to expect heading into open enrollment. The headline number is striking: the weighted average monthly MA premium is projected to fall to just $12.00 per month in 2027, the lowest average in recent years and a meaningful drop from $14.37 in 2026.
Source: CMS press release September 28, 2026 and CMS Part D National Average Bid Amount announcement. These are projected weighted averages across all plans nationally — individual plan premiums vary significantly by county, carrier, and plan type. Always verify specific plan premiums through the Medicare.gov Plan Finder after October 1, 2026.
Why Premiums Are Falling While Benefits Are Being Cut: Understanding the Apparent Contradiction
If you’ve been following pre-AEP news, you may be wondering how premiums can fall while carriers are simultaneously cutting benefits, removing Part B givebacks, and reducing dental coverage. The answer lies in how Medicare Advantage premium averages are calculated — and in the fact that the two trends are not mutually exclusive.
The weighted average premium is calculated across all MA plan enrollees nationally. When plans exit markets — as Humana, Molina, and others are doing — their members either leave the MA market entirely or migrate into different, often lower-premium plans. This enrollment migration toward lower-cost options naturally pulls the average down. Additionally, CMS’s 2.48% rate increase in base payments to plans gave insurers more flexibility to lower premiums even while restructuring benefits.
The key insight for brokers: a lower premium does not automatically mean a better plan for a specific client. A plan can cost less in premium while offering less in dental coverage, removing a Part B giveback, increasing specialist copays, or narrowing its provider network. Premium is one dimension of plan value — not the whole picture. Your job as a broker is to help clients evaluate the full value proposition, not just the monthly premium line item.
Broker Takeaway
The lower average premium headline gives brokers a genuinely positive talking point heading into AEP client conversations — “2027 MA premiums are down 16.5% on average.” But use it as an opener to a full plan review, not a substitute for one. Clients who hear “Medicare Advantage is cheaper next year” and auto-renew without a review may still end up with reduced dental, a lost giveback, or higher drug costs on their specific plan. The premium headline gets them to the conversation — your analysis keeps them in the right plan.
Standalone Part D Plans for 2027: The End of the Stabilization Demo
For clients who have standalone Part D prescription drug plans rather than MAPD, the 2027 picture is more nuanced. CMS confirmed that the total average monthly premium for standalone PDP plans is projected to rise by less than $1 per month from 2026 to 2027 — effectively flat. That is the good news for the market-level average.
The important context: the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration — a voluntary program that had been subsidizing standalone PDP premiums to prevent large premium spikes following the Inflation Reduction Act Part D redesign — has ended for 2027. Without that subsidy, plans now price their premiums based on their own bids against the Part D base beneficiary premium of $41.33 per month for 2027.
The market-wide near-flat average conceals significant variation at the individual plan level. Some standalone PDPs may see notable premium changes; others may remain stable or decrease. Clients who are in standalone PDPs need the same AEP review attention as MA clients — particularly those who are on higher-premium PDPs or whose medications have changed tier placement for 2027. Verify each client’s specific PDP against the 2027 formulary after the Medicare Plan Finder updates on approximately October 1.
Plan Availability in 2027: More Than 5,500 Plans Nationally
Despite the high-profile carrier exits, the total number of Medicare Advantage plans available nationally remains substantial. The number of MA plans nationwide is projected at approximately 5,532 plans in 2027, a slight decrease from 5,553 in 2026. Despite this modest dip, more than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries will have access to at least one MA plan, and 97% will have access to 10 or more plan options, according to CMS data and analyses of plan filings.
The national plan count stability does not tell the full county-level story. Plan choice will fall in more than half of states for 2027, with some counties — particularly in less competitive rural markets — seeing meaningful reductions in available plans. Brokers working in rural or less competitive markets should verify the specific plan landscape in their counties using Medicare Plan Finder to understand what options their clients actually have, rather than relying on national averages.
Source: CMS press release September 28, 2026; Becker’s analysis of CMS plan filing data. National figures. County-level availability varies — verify through Medicare.gov Plan Finder.
Part B Premium Projection for 2027: The Important Caveat for Clients
While MA premiums are falling on average, clients need to understand one important offsetting factor: the standard Medicare Part B premium is projected to increase for 2027. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard Part B premium at $209.50 per month in 2027, up from $202.90 in 2026 — an increase of $6.60 per month, or roughly $79.20 per year.
This matters because Part B premiums are paid by all Medicare beneficiaries — including those in Medicare Advantage plans — in addition to any plan-level premium. A client who was receiving a Part B premium “giveback” benefit from their 2026 MA plan (where the plan paid some or all of the Part B premium) and loses that benefit for 2027 faces a double impact: they lose the giveback reduction AND their base Part B premium is going up.
The 2027 Part B premium is a projection — CMS typically announces the final standard Part B premium in the fall. Always note that the actual 2027 Part B premium may differ from projections. Advise clients based on the most current official figures available at the time of your AEP review conversations, and point them to Medicare.gov for the official announced figure.
What Lower MA Premiums Mean for Brokers During AEP 2026
The 2027 premium data changes the texture of AEP client conversations in three meaningful ways:
1. A Genuine Positive Opening for Every AEP Conversation
AEP conversations can feel anxiety-inducing for clients — especially in years with widespread carrier exits and benefit reductions. The premium decrease data gives brokers a legitimately positive fact to lead with: “The good news is that Medicare Advantage premiums are actually going down on average next year — by about 16%. I want to walk you through what specifically changed in your plan so you can decide if you’re in the best option for 2027.” This frames the review as value-adding rather than alarming.
2. The Counter-Narrative Opportunity for Displaced Clients
Clients whose plans are exiting — from Humana, Molina, UHC markets, and others — may feel anxious about the disruption. The 2027 premium data is your counter-narrative: “The market is actually in good shape for you as a consumer — premiums are the lowest they’ve been in years on average, and there are more than 5,500 plans available nationally. Let me show you what’s available in your county.” This repositions plan disruption as an opportunity, not a crisis.
3. The Complete Conversation Still Requires the Full Review
The lower premium headline does not reduce the need for a thorough AEP review — it makes it more important. With premiums down on average but benefits being restructured, the gap between a good plan and a mediocre plan for a specific client may be larger than ever. A low-premium plan that cuts dental and removes a giveback may be a worse value for a specific client than a slightly higher-premium plan that maintains network access, keeps the giveback, and covers the client’s medications. The broker who conducts a comprehensive review — network, formulary, benefits, premium, and giveback — is the broker the client calls back next year with a referral.
4. The October 1 Plan Finder Trigger
Medicare.gov’s Plan Finder updates with confirmed 2027 plan data on approximately October 1 — 14 days from today. That is when you can run true apples-to-apples comparisons for your clients’ specific counties, medications, and providers. Build your AEP workflow around this date: plan your client comparison lookups for October 1–7 so you have real, verified benefit and premium data ready when AEP opens October 15.
Broker Takeaway
Lower average premiums + benefit restructuring + plan exits = the most active AEP review market in years. Every client needs a fresh look at their plan for 2027. The brokers who conduct proactive, thorough reviews — and use the positive premium headline to open those conversations — will be the ones who build durable client relationships and strong AEP production numbers.
How Affordable Care Agents Supports Brokers Heading Into AEP 2026
Affordable Care Agents is a national FMO and IMO supporting Medicare, ACA, and ancillary insurance brokers across the country. With AEP opening October 15, ACA helps contracted brokers maximize their AEP performance through:
- Fast-track carrier contracting and ready-to-sell status support across major Medicare Advantage carriers
- AHIP 2027 discount certification through the OIM partnership — complete your cert before AEP if not already done
- AEP training on 2027 plan changes, the new October 1 CMS marketing rules, and enrollment compliance
- Plan comparison tools and market intelligence for brokers to conduct faster, more informed client reviews
- Back-office support for enrollment submissions, SOA documentation, and client case management during AEP
AEP Opens October 15 — 16 Days Away.
Medicare Advantage premiums are down. Your clients need a review. Get contracted, get certified, and get ready to serve your book before October 15.
Complete AHIP 2027 at a discount through the OIM partnership if not already done.
Frequently Asked Questions
Disclaimer: This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered legal, tax, financial, medical, insurance, or compliance advice. Insurance laws, Medicare and Medicaid regulations, Affordable Care Act Marketplace rules, carrier policies, commissions, plan availability, eligibility requirements, and state regulations may change and may vary by jurisdiction. Premium figures cited in this article are projected national weighted averages from the CMS September 28, 2026 press release and are subject to change. Individual plan premiums vary by county, carrier, and plan type. The Medicare Part B premium projection is from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and may differ from the final official 2027 amount announced by CMS. Readers should verify current information through official sources such as CMS, Medicare.gov, Healthcare.gov, IRS.gov, state Departments of Insurance, and applicable insurance carriers before making insurance or business decisions. Affordable Care Agents is a national FMO, IMO, and insurance brokerage. Publication does not constitute an offer of insurance or a guarantee of coverage, contracting, compensation, eligibility, or regulatory compliance.
