How Many Medicare Advantage Enrollees Are Losing Their Plan in 2027?

About 3.16 million individual Medicare Advantage enrollees, roughly 10.6% of the individual market, are in plans that are terminating or leaving their county for 2027. That estimate comes from an October 8, 2026 analysis by Jared Strock of Medicare Market Insights, based on the CMS 2027 crosswalk and landscape files and September 2026 enrollment. The count covers individual MA and MAPD plans only. It excludes cost plans, MSA plans, PACE and employer group plans.

The raw data behind this kind of analysis is public. CMS publishes the 2027 Part C and D Plan Crosswalk, which shows whether each 2026 plan renews, consolidates or terminates. Analysts match that file against county-level enrollment to estimate how many people are affected.

If a client asks, “How many people are losing their Medicare Advantage plan next year?” a fair answer is “a little more than one in ten MA members, about three million people nationally.” If a client asks, “Why is my plan going away?” the answer is that the carrier decided not to renew that plan, or that plan in that county. It does not mean the client did anything wrong, and it does not affect the client’s Medicare eligibility.

Three Years of Rising Disruption

Before 2025, plan terminations were a minor issue. They have grown every year since.

The 2021 through 2025 figures come from ATI Advisory research, as cited by Medicare Market Insights. Independent academic work points in the same direction. A research letter published in JAMA in February 2026 by Mark Meiselbach and colleagues found that the average forced disenrollment rate was 1.0% from 2018 to 2024, then rose to 6.9% for 2025 and 10.0% for 2026, or 12.4% among non-SNP plans.

The growth is outpacing the market. Medicare Market Insights reports that impacted enrollment rose about 10% year over year, while individual MA enrollment grew about 2.4%. Insurers have pointed to higher medical costs and utilization. CMS finalized a 2.48% average payment increase for 2027, but carriers are still trimming footprints, as we covered in our look at Medicare Advantage benefit cuts for 2027.

Which Plan Types Are Hit Hardest

Local PPOs carry most of the disruption, for the third year in a row.

Source: Medicare Market Insights, October 8, 2026. Nearly one in five Local PPO enrollees is losing a plan, and Local PPOs account for about 59% of all affected members, roughly 1.85 million people. HMO disruption held steady at about 1.3 million. PFFS has the highest rate, but on a very small base.

UnitedHealthcare’s leadership has publicly linked its pullback to PPO-heavy markets, describing PPO plans as more expensive to run because members can go out of network. That matters in practice: clients leaving a PPO often care most about keeping specific doctors or using providers out of network, and many replacement options in their county may be HMOs.

What to ask a displaced PPO client

• Which doctors and hospitals must stay in network, and do any of them practice in another state?
• Do you travel or spend part of the year away from home?
• Would you accept an HMO with referrals if your doctors are in network?
• Would Original Medicare with a Medigap policy and Part D fit your budget better? See our Medicare Advantage vs. Medicare Supplement guide.

Special Needs Plans: Small but Growing

Source: Medicare Market Insights, October 8, 2026. Non-SNP plans still account for about 90% of affected members. But D-SNP disruption nearly doubled, from about 135,000 to about 255,000 enrollees, making it the fastest-growing segment.

D-SNP changes need extra care. Starting in 2027, CMS rules limit some D-SNPs to enrolling members of their affiliated Medicaid plan, and CMS created a new crosswalk exception for moving D-SNP members between contracts within the same parent organization. Dual-eligible clients may also have a monthly enrollment option that other members lack. KFF summarizes these rules in its Medicare open enrollment Q&A. Confirm the client’s Medicaid status and plan alignment before recommending anything.

Which Carriers Are Pulling Back

According to Medicare Market Insights, four parent organizations account for 53% of all affected members: Humana, UnitedHealthcare, CVS Health (Aetna) and Aware Integrated (Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota). The top 15 organizations account for about 80%.

The Blue Cross MN details come from the carrier’s own 2027 restructuring announcement, which says Medicare Supplement and standalone drug plans remain available statewide and Platinum Blue cost plans continue where they are offered today. The county counts come from KFF analysis of the CMS landscape files.

Organizations leaving individual MA entirely

Medicare Market Insights counts seven organizations exiting individual MA completely, up from five last year, nearly all of them provider-sponsored health systems: Providence St. Joseph Health (about 53,000 members), Sharp HealthCare (about 17,000), Memorial Hermann (about 14,600), CHRISTUS Health, Central Mass Health Holding, Aspirus and BMC Health System. Providence confirms on its site that its Medicare Advantage plans will not be available in 2027. Sharp says it will stop offering individual MA plans but will keep employer group retiree plans.

Counts of full exits differ by source because analysts define them differently. KFF, for example, lists Group 1001 (Clear Spring Health) and Molina as completely exiting the MA-PD market, while Molina keeps special needs plans in many counties. We covered Molina’s Medicare Advantage exit earlier this season.

Where the Disruption Is Concentrated

Members in all 50 states are affected, but the top 10 states account for 61% of the total, per Medicare Market Insights.

Source: Medicare Market Insights, October 8, 2026. Minnesota stands out: nearly two-thirds of its individual MA market must choose again, driven by Blue Cross MN’s restructuring plus changes at other regional carriers. The Minneapolis Star Tribune puts the Minnesota figure at more than 320,000 people, close to the analysis.

Access is also shrinking at the edges. KFF found that 193 counties will have no MA-PD available for general enrollment in 2027, up from 123 in 2026, covering about 638,000 beneficiaries, or 1% of the Medicare population. Those counties are mostly rural and sit in 16 states, including Minnesota, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Idaho and Vermont. Clients there may only have Original Medicare, a Medigap policy and a Part D plan.

Losing a Plan Is Not Losing Coverage

Headlines can frighten clients. Most displaced members will have choices. When KFF studied the 2025 terminations, it found that 98.9% of affected enrollees had at least one MA-PD available in 2026, and more than two-thirds could stay with the same insurer. For 2027, KFF reports the average beneficiary still has 28 MA-PD options, down from 32. Blue Cross MN says more than 80% of its current MA members have a new Blue Cross MA plan available, and Humana has said it hopes to keep about 40% of affected members in other Humana plans.

The rules give clients time, but acting early is better. Clients can choose a new plan during AEP, October 15 to December 7, for a January 1 start. The CMS 2027 enrollment guidance also provides a non-renewal Special Enrollment Period from December 8 through the last day of February. Clients who return to Original Medicare can use a Medigap guaranteed issue right: Medicare.gov says they must apply 60 days before, and no more than 63 days after, their Medicare Advantage coverage ends. Members who take no action end up in Original Medicare. Our Medicare Advantage plan non-renewal playbook walks through each step.

What This Means for Your Book

1. Run a crosswalk check on every MA client. Match each 2026 plan ID to the CMS crosswalk or the carrier’s broker portal to see whether it renews, consolidates or terminates. Service area reductions are easy to miss because the plan still exists elsewhere.
2. Prioritize by risk. Start with Local PPO members, D-SNP members, clients in high-disruption states, and clients with complex drug or provider needs.
3. Re-review renewed plans too. Clients whose plan was crosswalked into a different plan may face new networks, formularies or costs.
4. Follow the marketing rules. Use a written Scope of Appointment before the appointment, the TPMO disclaimer before discussing benefits, and recorded calls where required. See our 2027 Scope of Appointment rules.
5. Present all realistic paths. Another MA plan, the same carrier’s replacement plan, or Original Medicare with Medigap and Part D. Our 2027 Medigap high-deductible guide helps with the Medigap side.
6. Confirm compensation separately. Some carriers are paying reduced or no commission on certain 2027 plans. Check before you enroll, but never let compensation drive the recommendation.
7. Document and follow up. Record the client’s needs, the plans compared and the reason for the choice. Confirm ID cards and effective dates in December.

Handled well, this season builds the long-term client relationships behind a renewal-driven book. Clients remember the agent who called them before the panic set in.

Mistakes to Avoid

• Quoting third-party totals as official. CMS does not publish a single affected-member number. Attribute estimates to their source.
• Assuming a crosswalk means “no action needed.” A consolidated plan can have a different network or formulary.
• Using fear in outreach. Avoid alarming language and never imply Medicare endorsement.
• Ignoring the Medigap timeline. Count 63 days from the date MA coverage ends.
• Overlooking duals. D-SNP disruption is rising and the 2027 alignment rules are more complex.
• Waiting for the SEP. January and February elections start February 1 or March 1, leaving a gap.

How Affordable Care Agents Helps Brokers Through Plan Disruption

Affordable Care Agents is a national FMO, IMO and insurance brokerage that supports licensed agents with the contracts, training and back-office help this kind of season demands:

• Carrier contracting across Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, Part D and ancillary lines, so you can offer every realistic path
• AHIP 2027 discount certification through the OIM partnership
• Compliance education on CMS marketing rules, Scope of Appointment and TPMO disclosures
• Back-office and enrollment support during peak AEP weeks
• Training and coaching for agents building a durable Medicare book

Frequently Asked Questions